Britain is on course to becoming a '2nd tier' European nation like Spain or Italy due to financial decline and a weak military that undermines its usefulness to allies, a professional has actually alerted.

Research teacher Dr Azeem Ibrahim OBE concluded in a damning brand-new report that the U.K. has been paralysed by low financial investment, high tax and misguided policies that could see it lose its standing as a top-tier middle power at current growth rates.

The plain evaluation weighed that successive federal government failures in guideline and drawing in financial investment had caused Britain to miss out on out on the 'industries of the future' courted by established economies.

'Britain no longer has the commercial base to logistically sustain a war with a near-peer like Russia for more than two months,' he wrote in The Henry Jackson Society's newest report, Strategic Prosperity: The Case for Economic Growth as a National Security Priority.

The report examines that Britain is now on track to fall behind Poland in regards to per capita income by 2030, and that the central European country's military will quickly surpass the U.K.'s along lines of both manpower and equipment on the existing trajectory.

'The issue is that once we are devalued to a 2nd tier middle power, it's going to be almost difficult to get back. Nations do not come back from this,' Dr Ibrahim informed MailOnline today.

'This is going to be accelerated decline unless we nip this in the bud and have bold leaders who are able to make the hard decisions today.'

People pass boarded up shops on March 20, 2024 in Hastings, England

A British soldier refills his rifle on February 17, 2025 in Smardan, Romania

Staff Sergeant Rai utilizes a radio to speak to Archer teams from 19th Regiment Royal Artillery during a live fire range on Rovajärvi Training Area, throughout Exercise Dynamic Front, Finland

Dr Ibrahim welcomed the federal government's choice to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP from April 2027, but warned much deeper, systemic problems threaten to irreversibly knock the U.K. from its position as a globally influential power.

With a weakening commercial base, Britain's effectiveness to its allies is now 'falling behind even second-tier European powers', he warned.

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'Not only is the U.K. forecasted to have a lower GDP per capita than Poland by 2030, but also a smaller sized army and one that is not able to sustain implementation at scale.'

This is of specific issue at a time of increased geopolitical tension, with Britain pegged to be among the leading forces in Europe's fast rearmament task.

'There are 230 brigades in Ukraine right now, Russian and Ukrainian. Not a single European country to install a single heavy armoured brigade.'

'This is an enormous oversight on the part of subsequent governments, not just Starmer's issue, of stopping working to invest in our military and essentially outsourcing security to the United States and NATO,' he informed MailOnline.

'With the U.S. getting fatigue of providing the security umbrella to Europe, Europe now needs to base on its own and the U.K. would have been in a premium position to actually lead European defence. But none of the European countries are.'

Slowed defence spending and patterns of low efficiency are absolutely nothing new. But Britain is now likewise 'stopping working to adjust' to the Trump administration's shock to the rules-based global order, said Dr Ibrahim.

The previous advisor to the 2021 Integrated Defence and Security Review noted in the report that in spite of the 'weakening' of the organizations as soon as 'protected' by the U.S., Britain is responding by damaging the last vestiges of its military may and economic power.

The U.K., he stated, 'seems to be making significantly costly gestures' like the ₤ 9bn handover of the strategic Chagos Islands and opening talks on reparations for Caribbean Slavery.

The surrender of the Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean has been the source of much examination.

Negotiations in between the U.K. and Mauritius were begun by the Tories in 2022, however an arrangement was announced by the Labour government last October.

Dr Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute defence and security believe thank alerted at the time that 'the move shows stressing tactical ineptitude in a world that the U.K. government refers to as being characterised by great power competition'.

Require the U.K. to offer reparations for its historic role in the servant trade were rekindled likewise in October last year, though Sir Keir Starmer said ahead of a meeting of Commonwealth nations that reparations would not be on the agenda.

An Opposition 2 main fight tank of the British forces throughout the NATO's Spring Storm workout in Kilingi-Nomme, Estonia, Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk speak during an interview in Warsaw, Poland, January 17, 2025

Dr Ibhramin evaluated that the U.K. seems to be acting versus its own security interests in part due to a narrow understanding of risk.

'We understand soldiers and missiles but stop working to completely envisage the threat that having no alternative to China's supply chains might have on our capability to react to military hostility.'

He suggested a new security design to 'improve the U.K.'s strategic dynamism' based on a rethink of migratory policy and risk assessment, access to uncommon earth minerals in a market dominated by China, and the prioritisation of energy security and self-reliance via financial investment in North Sea gas and a long-overdue rethink on nuclear energy.

'Without immediate policy modifications to reignite growth, Britain will end up being a reduced power, reliant on more powerful allies and susceptible to foreign browbeating,' the Diplomacy columnist stated.

'As worldwide financial competitors magnifies, the U.K. needs to choose whether to welcome a strong growth agenda or resign itself to permanent decrease.'

Britain's dedication to the concept of Net Zero may be admirable, however the pursuit will inhibit growth and obscure tactical goals, he alerted.

'I am not stating that the environment is not important. But we merely can not pay for to do this.

'We are a nation that has actually stopped working to invest in our financial, in our energy facilities. And we have substantial resources at our disposal.'

Nuclear power, consisting of making use of small modular reactors, might be a boon for the British economy and energy self-reliance.

'But we have actually failed to commercialise them and clearly that's going to take a considerable quantity of time.'

Britain did present a new financing model for nuclear power stations in 2022, which lobbyists consisting of Labour political leaders had firmly insisted was key to discovering the cash for pricey plant-building jobs.

While Innovate UK, Britain's innovation agency, has actually been heralded for its grants for little energy-producing companies in your home, business owners have actually cautioned a broader culture of 'danger hostility' in the U.K. stifles investment.

In 2022, earnings for the poorest 14 million individuals fell by 7.5%, per the ONS. Pictured: Waterlooville High Street, Waterlooville, Hants

Undated file photo of The British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) or Chagos Islands

Britain has consistently failed to acknowledge the looming 'authoritarian danger', permitting the trend of managed decline.

But the resurgence of autocracies on the world phase risks even more undermining the rules-based global order from which Britain 'benefits immensely' as a globalised economy.

'The risk to this order ... has actually developed partially due to the fact that of the lack of a robust will to safeguard it, owing in part to deliberate foreign efforts to subvert the acknowledgment of the true prowling danger they position.'

The Trump administration's cautioning to NATO allies in Europe that they will have to do their own bidding has actually gone some way towards waking Britain as much as the seriousness of investing in defence.

But Dr Ibrahim alerted that this is inadequate. He urged a top-down reform of 'basically our whole state' to bring the ossified state back to life and sustain it.

'Reforming the well-being state, reforming the NHS, reforming pensions - these are that use up enormous quantities of funds and they'll simply keep growing significantly,' he told MailOnline.

'You could double the NHS budget and it will actually not make much of a damage. So all of this will need fundamental reform and will take a lot of nerve from whomever is in power due to the fact that it will make them undesirable.'

The report outlines suggestions in radical tax reform, pro-growth immigration policies, and a renewed concentrate on securing Britain's role as a leader in modern markets, energy security, and international trade.

Vladimir Putin consults with the guv of Arkhangelsk region Alexander Tsybulsky throughout their meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, March 11, 2025

File photo. Britain's financial stagnancy might see it quickly end up being a 'second tier' partner

Boarded-up shops in Blackpool as more than 13,000 shops closed their doors for good in 2024

Britain is not alone in falling back. The Trump administration's insistence that Europe spend for its own defence has cast fresh light on the Old Continent's alarming situation after years of slow growth and lowered spending.

The Centre for Economic Policy Research examined at the end of last year that Euro location financial performance has been 'suppressed' given that around 2018, showing 'multifaceted obstacles of energy dependence, manufacturing vulnerabilities, and moving global trade dynamics'.

There remain profound inconsistencies in between European economies; German deindustrialisation has struck organizations difficult and forced redundancies, while Spain has actually grown in line with its tourism-focused economy.

This stays vulnerable, however, with locals significantly agitated by the viewed pandering to foreign visitors as they are evaluated of budget-friendly lodging and trapped in low paying seasonal tasks.